Two years ago in 2011, the film Contagion was released.  The story is about a deadly virus that spreads around the world and wreaks havoc with society.

A few years earlier, ABC-TV presented the movie Fatal Contact, Bird Flu in America, a fictional account of the devastating effects of a bird flu pandemic in the United States. It followed the virus as it traveled from a market in Hong Kong and mutated into a human-to-human strain that quickly spread across the globe. After it was broadcasted last year, nearly 2000 of you wrote I.P.N. asking questions about the program and our official position on it. Normally, we would have dismissed programs like these as entertainment designed to attract viewers and exploit their fears about the subject for ratings & ticket sales. In this case, it wasn’t. It dramatically illustrated just how bad things could become if the H5N1 strain of flu mutates into a human-to-human transmissible form.

Seven years ago in Sumatra, the H5N1 strain mutated into a highly virulent human-to-human strain that infected eight family members and killed seven.

Currently, humans have no immunity to H5N1. Fortunately for all of us, this form of avian flu hasn’t spread yet, however, as most virologists & epidemiologists already know, the odds are high that very soon a global pandemic will develop and due to modern transportation systems, spread internationally with unprecedented speed. In past pandemics, influenza viruses have needed more than six months to spread.  The recent 2009 H1N1 virus outbreak in Mexico spread in less than six weeks.

A short time after it was it was first detected in Mexico City in April 2009, H1N1 killed over 1,154 people worldwide.  Most of the deaths were in the Americas. Eventually, there were over 1 million Americans infected.

The most troubling aspect of this development is that a virus of this type could conceivably combine with the avian flu H5N1 or other viruses and trigger a global pandemic similar to the Spanish flu pandemic (another avian flu virus) of 1918 that killed 675,000 Americans and approx. 50-100 million people worldwide.

With the numbers adjusted for the increase in world population, a similar pandemic would kill upwards of 2-3 million Americans over a period of 9-15 months and quite possibly, 150-300 million worldwide. As frightening as it may seem, it could even be much worse than this. In poor countries like Africa, Southern Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, there are no buffers to prevent the spread. It could sweep across these countries like a biological brush fire, leaving a trail of death and suffering in its wake on a scale not seen since the “Black Death” swept through Europe in the 14^th century. See link: http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/plague.htm

The H5N1 Avian flu strain has a 50-100% mortality rate. See: http://www.medicinenet.com/bird_flu/article.htm this means that in a hypothetical situation where 100 people are infected, between 50% & 100% of them will die upon contracting the virus. Even a mild pandemic would increase the annual death for influenza by a factor of 10 from approximately 36,000 to about 360,000.

See link: http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pressrel/r030107.htm

The only question here is: Are you prepared if the worst happens?

(Or even the least?)

If you aren’t read on.  The following document will outline all of the major survival strategies needed to help you survive any type of pandemic.

The highest urban risk areas listed below are marked with the bio-hazard symbol one indicates low risk, two medium, three  high, and four very high:

The best way to avoid illness is to minimize your exposure to the contagion.

This is very difficult to manage in a crowded city, but it isn’t impossible. Continue reading to learn about how you must change your behavior during a pandemic to avoid contact with this potentially lethal contagion.

Tamiflu is not the answer!

Currently, the only medicine that has been somewhat effective in treating H1N1 is a drug called “Tamiflu” (oseltamivir). It has been shown to be useful in some cases when taken before serious illness develops, but the H5N1 strain is showing signs that it may be developing a resistance.  New types such as the A(H1N1) type, found in Brazil, have a nearly 10% lethality rate for people with low risk factors. This recent development is forcing many governments around the world to rethink their H1N1 fighting strategies. Clearly, having stockpiles of Tamiflu will not be enough to combat this powerful virus. It will take a combination of methods to help keep it under control. Isolation and hygiene are the two best methods.

The following is a list of some of the others:

You must make your body as inhospitable to flu viruses as possible. If a pandemic breaks out, modify your diet to include as many flu fighting foods and beverages as you can. If you contract it, this will slow down the replication of the virus (viral load) in your system enough to keep it from spiraling out of control.

• A Korean fermented cabbage dish called Kimchi (pronounced Kimâchee) that has shown some promise after a study by scientists in Seoul, Korea who discovered that 11 of 13 chickens infected with the avian flu recovered after they were fed an extract of Kimchi.  It might have the same effects on H1N1 see links:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4347443.stmhttp://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200510/kt2005101217270011950.htm, also see link:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1504289/posts http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/health/2002608490_flucure07.html

• Dark grape juice may help to keep the viral load low if you contract it. It contains substances called tannins. This has been known to kill flu viruses in laboratories. Elderberries (known as the “Englishman’s grape) may also help to keep the viral load lower or under control if it is taken before the illness becomes severe.  It contains a number of compounds that are effective against flu viruses.   Never use Elderberry unless it is the commercially produced extract. The flowers, unripe berries, bark, roots and leaves contain enough cyanide to produce cyanide poisoning or even death. Look for elderberry capsules, juice or syrup in your local health food store.  The preferred product is called Sambucol, a black elderberry extract that may help to minimize flu symptoms.

A recent study conducted by Dr. Erling Thom & his team at the University of Oslo in Norway demonstrated that 93% of flu patients that were given Sambucol lost all symptoms in 48 hours. It included 60 patients that were struggling with severe flu symptoms from two different strains of the virus for approx. two days. 90% had a “type A,” the others had a type “B.” 1/2 of the group was given 15 milliliters of Sambucol & the other half were given placebos four times a day for a five day period.   The Sambucol patients’ conditions rapidly improved in 72 hours and 90% were completely cured during that period.  In addition, the patients treated with Sambucol had no pronounced side effects (drowsiness, dizziness etc) as other anti-virals such as Tamiflu produce.

See link: http://www.elderberries.com/elderberries.html

The placebo group did not fare as well.  They didn’t begin to normalize until six days later & they also took more symptom reduction medications.  Elderberry extract could be one of the most effective and safe treatments available. Sambucol is the only form of elderberry that has had proven results in laboratory studies.  It is important to note that some believe that elderberry can trigger a “cytokene storm.”

Simply stated, this is a hyper-reaction of your immune system. Essentially, Cytokines are molecules that function to signal your body’s immune system to respond to infections and invading microorganisms.  The body uses white cells called macrophages that are activated by bacteria, viruses & circulating white cells called CD8+T-lymphocytes that attack when they are exposed to flu viruses and the proteins that they produce.

These cells create cytokines such as Interferon (gamma, alpha & beta) Tumor Necrosis Factor, Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein and others that work to destroy the foreign invader.  Too many cytokines are like a heavy rainstorm that floods the body with these immune cells that can cause major problems (tissue inflammation), and lead toward death.  This particular strain of flu may provoke an abnormal immune system response that triggers a Some believe the elderberry can trigger a cytokine storm, but most reports are unproven clinically. Diabetics who use Sambucol should carefully monitor their blood sugar as it has the potential to increase the release of insulin.

At the heart of the stormy matter are macrophages (‘first responder’ white cells activated by damaged cells or foreign invaders such as bacteria or viruses) and CD8+T-lymphocytes (circulating white cells that leap into

So, the human lung with too many cytokines is way too much of a good thing, causing swelling, hemorrhage, and tissue death which are ironically, more a result of the body’s defense mode than a primary flu-generated injury. Scientists theorize that young people may have a more robust cytokine response and less H1N1 immunity from previous exposure compared with older populations.

• As of today, 8 cases have been reported in the US from California and Mexico that have been identified as the swinish H1N1 flu but mild and self-limited illnesses in those affected. Remember, increasing evidence suggests that robust body levels of vitamin D are flu-protective, so this might be a good time to get your blood tested for vitamin D and step up your supplements under advisement with your physician.

One drug that does show some promise is an antiviral medicine called Relenza (zanamivir). It is inhaled through the nose and has been shown to produce fewer side effects.

• Take vitamin C (ascorbic acid) every day- some recommend mega doses (20,000mg per day) against Avian Flu “there is no comprehensive study to confirm this but some use the 1949 case of Dr. Frederick Klenner, a clinical researcher from Reidsville, North Carolina, who infused 60 polio patients with massive intravenous doses of Vitamin C (20,000mg daily for three days — today’s recommended daily allowance is 60mg) After the treatment and a period of rest, all 60 were cured.

NOTE: There is no way to tell if Vitamin C can have this effect on Avian Flu until it is tested against it under laboratory conditions. If you are ever infected and your treatments are unsuccessful, it may be your physicians’ best “last resort” method to help you recover. See the following links:

http://www.orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v01n12.shtml http://www.apfn.net/Messageboard/11-03-05/discussion.cgi.67.html http://www.newmediaexplorer.org/sepp/2005/10/28/avian_flu_is_specialization_killing_us.htmhttp://www.worldwidehealthcenter.net/articles-361.html

For flu viruses, the primary methods of transmission will be pneumonic (by air — virus loaded droplets of their saliva float in the air and, are inhaled by someone standing nearby) and, by direct contact, hand to nose, eye & mouth. Most colds and flu viruses are caught when people sneeze, cough, exhale or, shake the hand of someone who is infected and touch the inside of their nose, eye and in some cases mouth.

The virus (in aerosolized droplets) can also be (in some cases) transmitted over longer distances if the air currents in the room are strong enough to keep the droplets floating and high enough to be inhaled before they settle on the surrounding surfaces (current data suggests that flu viruses can survive up to four days outside of a host (body) see link:http://vetextension.psu.edu/Newsletters/vn/vn0404.pdf.

Wash your hands frequently; almost compulsively during a flu outbreak check this link and follow the advice religiously see link:

Wash Your Hands Holiday Jingle http://www.cdph.ca.gov/programs/immunize/Documents/WashYourHands_jingle.mp3

Keep a large supply of non-perishable food items and water stocked away in your home during winter months. Contrary to what you may hear from the federal government, two weeks is not enough. For a global pandemic, you would need from one (minimum) and for worse case scenarios, three months or even more. This will cut back on the need for traveling to supermarkets and grocery stores where you could encounter someone with the infection and acquire it. In addition, this will also allow you to stay inside of your home just in case your area became quarantined.

The only question here is: are you prepared if the worst happens?

Or even the least?

If you aren’t read on.  The following document will outline all of the major survival strategies needed to help you survive any type of pandemic.

The highest urban risk areas listed below are marked with the bio hazard symbol one indicates low risk, two medium, three  high, and four very high:

The best way to avoid illness is to minimize your exposure to the contagion. This is very difficult to manage in a crowded city but, it isn’t impossible. Continue reading to learn about how you must change your behavior during a pandemic to avoid contact with this potentially lethal contagion.

Tamiflu is not the answer!

Currently, the only medicine that has been somewhat effective in treating H1N1 is a drug called Tamiflu (oseltamivir). It has been shown to be useful in some cases when taken before serious illness develops but, the H5N1 strain is showing signs that it may be developing a resistance.  New types such as the A(H1N1) type found in Brazil have a nearly 10% lethality rate for people with low risk factors.

This recent development is forcing many governments around the world to rethink their H1N1 fighting strategies. Clearly, having stockpiles of Tamiflu will not be enough to combat this powerful virus. It will take a combination of methods to help keep it under control. Isolation and hygiene are the two best methods.

The following is a list of some of the others:

• You must make your body as inhospitable to flu viruses as possible. If a pandemic breaks out, modify your diet to include as many flu fighting foods and beverages as you can. If you contract it, this will slow down the replication of the virus (viral load) in your system enough to keep it from spiraling out of control.
• A Korean fermented cabbage dish called Kimchi (pronounced Kimâchee) that has shown some promise after a study by scientists in Seoul, Korea who discovered that 11 of 13 chickens infected with the avian flu recovered after they were fed an extract of Kimchi.  It might have the same effects on H1N1 see links:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4347443.stmhttp://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200510/kt2005101217270011950.htm, http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1504289/posts http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/health/2002608490_flucure07.html

• Dark grape juice may help to keep the viral load low if you contract it. It contains substances called tannins. This has been known to kill flu viruses in laboratories. Elderberries (known as the “Englishman’s grape) may also help to keep the viral load lower under control if it is taken before the illness becomes severe.  It contains a number of compounds that are effective against flu viruses.   Never use Elderberry unless it is the commercially produced extract. The flowers, unripe berries, bark, roots, leaves contain enough cyanide to produce cyanide poisoning or even death. Look for elderberry capsules, juice, syrup, in your local health food store.  The preferred product is called Sambucol, a black elderberry extract that may help to minimize flu symptoms.  A recent study conducted by Dr. Erling Thom & his team at the University of Oslo in Norway demonstrated that 93% of flu patients that were given Sambucol lost all symptoms in 48 hours.

It included 60 patients that were struggling with severe flu symptoms from two different strains of the virus for approx. two days. 90% had a “type A,” the others had a type “B.” 1/2 of the group was given 15 milliliters of Sambucol & the other half were given placebos four times a day for a five day period.   The Sambucol patients conditions rapidly improved in 72 hours and 90% were completely cured during that period.  In addition, the patients treated with Sambucol had no pronounced side effects (drowsiness, dizziness etc) as other anti-virals such as Tamiflu produce.

The placebo group did not fare as well.  They didn’t begin to normalize until six days later & they also took more symptom reduction medications.  Elderberry extract could be one of the most effective and safe treatments available. Sambucol is the only form of elderberry that has had proven results in laboratory studies.  It is important to note that some believe that elderberry can trigger a “cytokene storm.”

Simply stated, this is a hyper-reaction of your immune system. Essentially, Cytokines are molecules that function to signal your body’s immune system to respond to infections and invading microorganisms.  The body uses white cells called macrophages that are activated by bacteria, viruses & circulating white cells called CD8+T-lymphocytes that attack when they are exposed to flu viruses and the proteins that they produce.

These cells create cytokines such as Interferon (gamma, alpha & beta) Tumor Necrosis Factor, Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein and others that work to destroy the foreign invader.  Too many cytokines are like a heavy rainstorm that  flood the body with these immune cells can cause major problems (tissue inflammation, and lead toward death.  This particular strain of flu may provoke an abnormal immune system response that triggers a Some believe the elderberry can trigger a cytokine storm, but most reports are unproven clinically. Diabetics who use Sambucol should carefully monitor their blood sugar as it has the potential to increase the release of insulin.

At the heart of the stormy matter are macrophages (‘first responder’ white cells activated by damaged cells or foreign invaders such as bacteria or viruses) and CD8+T-lymphocytes (circulating white cells)

So the human lung and too many cytokines is way too much of a good thing, causing swelling, hemorrhage, and tissue death which are, ironically, more a result of the body’s defense mode than a primary flu-generated injury. Scientists theorize that young people may have a more robust cytokine response and less H1N1 immunity from previous exposure compared with older populations.

• As of today, 8 cases have been reported in the US from California and Mexico that have been identified as the swinish H1N1 flu but mild and self-limited illnesses in those affected. Remember, increasing evidence suggests that robust body levels of vitamin D are flu-protective, so this might be a good time to get your blood tested for vitamin D and step up your supplements under advisement with your

See link: http://www.elderberries.com/elderberries.html

One drug that does show some promise is an antiviral medicine called Relenza (zanamivir) it is inhaled through the nose and has been shown to produce fewer side effects.

• Take vitamin C (ascorbic acid) every day, some recommend mega doses (20,000mg per day) against Avian Flu “there is no comprehensive study to confirm this but some use the 1949 case of Dr. Frederick Klenner, a clinical researcher from Reidsville, North Carolina, who infused 60 polio patients with massive intravenous doses of Vitamin C “(20,000mg daily for three days — today’s recommended daily allowance is 60mg) After the treatment and a period of rest, all 60 were cured.

NOTE: There is no way to tell if Vitamin C can have this effect on Avian Flu until it is tested against it under laboratory conditions. If you are ever infected and your treatments are unsuccessful, it may be your physicians’ best “last resort” method to help you recover. See the following links:

http://www.orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v01n12.shtml http://www.apfn.net/Messageboard/11-03-05/discussion.cgi.67.html http://www.newmediaexplorer.org/sepp/2005/10/28/avian_flu_is_specialization_killing_us.htmhttp://www.worldwidehealthcenter.net/articles-361.html

For flu viruses, the primary methods of transmission will be pneumonic (by air — virus loaded droplets of their saliva float in the air and, are inhaled by someone standing nearby) and, by direct contact, hand to nose, eye & mouth. Most colds and flu viruses are caught when people sneeze, cough, exhale or, shake the hand of someone who is infected and touch the inside of their nose, eye and in some cases mouth.

The virus (in aerosolized droplets) can also be (in some cases) transmitted over longer distances if the air currents in the room are strong enough to keep the droplets floating and high enough to be inhaled before they settle on the surrounding surfaces (current data suggests that flu viruses can survive up to four days outside of a host (body) see link:http://vetextension.psu.edu/Newsletters/vn/vn0404.pdf.

Wash your hands frequently; almost compulsively during a flu outbreak check this link and follow the advice religiously see link: Wash Your Hands Holiday Jingle http://www.cdph.ca.gov/programs/immunize/Documents/WashYourHands_jingle.mp3

Keep a large supply of non-perishable food items and water stocked away in your home during winter months. Contrary to what you may hear from the federal government, two weeks is not enough. For a global pandemic, you would need from one (minimum) and for worse case scenarios –  three months or even more. This will cut back on the need for traveling to supermarkets and grocery stores where you could encounter someone with the infection and acquire it. In addition, this will also allow you to stay inside of your home just in case your area became quarantined.

High Risk Areas

Crowded subway cars “ This is an extremely high risk area. The poor ventilation combined with the close proximity of the riders creates the perfect environment for transmission. One infected passenger that is sneezing or coughing can potentially infect a number of others standing or sitting nearby.

3M 8233 N-100 RESPIRATOR

Always wear an N-100 or N-95 masks and surgical gloves when riding. Do not be concerned about looking strange. You will look much worse if you contract avian flu.

If possible, wear eye protection to prevent touching eyes with contaminated hands. The spray from a sneeze can also deposit the virus onto the eye surface.  Eye protection reduces this risk.  The suggested eye-shields are military style or sports eyeglass goggles with protective barrier lining. They range in price from $20 to $100 dollars.

Crowded subway platforms: Not as bad as a subway car, but still a high risk environment.  Mask, gloves & eyeshields should be warned to maximize protection.

Crowded buses: Another high risk area, potentially as bad as crowded subways. The risk can be significantly reduced by opening windows.

Passenger trains & aircraft: One infected passenger in a railroad train can potentially infect others up to five rows ahead. On an aircraft, this effect is magnified by the compressed air in a sealed environment.

Taxicabs, limousines, ambulances, police cars with closed windows: An infected driver will fill the air with virus loaded micro-droplets upon exhalation. The droplets will settle on the hard surfaces contaminating them. When traveling in a cab always keep your passenger window open, wear gloves.

Crowded theaters, airports, bus terminals, indoor sports events, crowded outdoor events, concerts and other public gatherings.

All public contact surfaces: Presents a high degree of risk during pandemics this includes – doorknobs and handles, handrails (escalators & stairways), elevator buttons, sinks, toilets and every surface in a public bathroom, computer keyboards (internet café’s etc.) public phones, subway & bus poles, turnstiles, cab doors and any other hard surface (and some softer, as in the case of seating) you encounter publicly.

Money: Coins are often overlooked, but this will also be another source of transmission. After handling money, make sure to wash you hands or use your hand cleaning solution.

Restaurants: Highly subjective! A restaurant’s safety depends on the diligence of the workers, precautionary measures taken during food preparations and ventilation.  As a rule, to be on the safe side, they should be avoided during pandemics. Fast food restaurants are also high risk. Food is served on trays that are rarely cleaned. Cleaning instruments (mops & rags) are not sterilized. Influenza viruses require up to 2 minutes of exposure (or more) to a disinfectant solution to kill them.

Elevators: High risk! One infected person who sneezes in a crowded elevator has the potential to infect nearly everyone riding with them.

Malls: A well-ventilated mall should be relatively safe during a pandemic if it is not crowded, the ventilation is good and caution is exercised while inside.

Offices: A crowded office is like an influenza superhighway. The dry air, poor ventilation and close proximity of the workers make another ideal transmission spot that is almost as dangerous as crowded subway cars & buses.  Office workers will need to take extra measures to prevent contraction and transmission.

Hospitals: There will be a large concentration of infected people cycling through the hospitals. This will obviously result in the transmission of the virus to many patients and workers. When entering a hospital, always make certain to follow every protective protocol to the letter!

Nursing homes: Many elderly people will contract influenza and spread it to some of the workers and health care professionals.

Public Laundromats: Influenza can be transmitted by handling contaminated clothing.

Supermarkets: Relatively safe if the ventilation system is working properly and crowds are low. NOTE: Special attention must be paid to contact surfaces (products). During a pandemic, surgical gloves should be worn

Cats: Birds are not the only animal source of the avian flu. Cats can contract the virus and transmit it. See:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/09/0902_040902_birdflu.html and

http://www.fao.org/ag/AGAinfo/subjects/en/health/diseases-cards/avian_cats.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/06/13/nflu13.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/06/13/ixuknews.html

Since they live in such close proximity to humans, they pose a serious threat to public health during a pandemic. A cat that is suspect must be avoided, or must be captured by professionals to be tested by the medical authorities. If you own a cat, you must not let it venture outside during a pandemic where it can be exposed to a possible source of the virus. If it is infected, it will contaminate your environment and spread the infection to anyone who comes in contact with it.

If your cat is infected, you must carefully throw out the litter and litter box. Wear a mask and protective clothing while moving it. Place it inside of a sealed plastic bag and tape a label on it marked dangerous biological waste to warn sanitation crews.

You must then thoroughly clean your home or apartment, taking note of every area where your cat would sleep or play. Use a strong disinfectant that lists its effectiveness against influenza. If you have a carpet or rug in your home, it will have to be thrown out or steam cleaned by professionals with PPE. (personal protective equipment)

NOTE: As grim as it sounds — in a pandemic, there may be a need for the mass culling of cats & any other animal that can contract the virus and transmit it to humans.

Playgrounds: They are rarely cleaned and some of the contact surfaces that are not exposed to direct sunlight (the UV radiation in sunlight kills the H5N1 virus) can become contaminated. Children will contract influenza by touching the surfaces and scratching their eyes, mouth and noses.

1/2 Gymnasiums: Machines that are not disinfected after each use can become contaminated. In addition, crowded gymnasiums with poor ventilation systems can be a very dangerous point of transmission for the avian flu virus.

All Delivery Services: Delivery service workers will be exposed to a number of dangers that not only place them at a higher degree of risk, but also to become part of the problem by helping to actually spread the disease to others after becoming infected.

Website links for information

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention?www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/

OSHA’s Guidance for Protecting Workers Against Avian Flu?www.osha.gov/dsg/guidance/avian-flu.html

World Health Organization?www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/

References

1. World Health Organization. Avian influenza: assessing the pandemic threat. 2005 [cited 2005 Jan]. Available from http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/WHO_CDS_2005_29/en/index.html

2. Virus Transmission study for airplanes http://www.fluent.com/solutions/aerospace/pdfs/ja195.pdf

3. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Pandemic Influenza, International Measureshttp://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-1370.htm

4. World Health Organization. WHO global influenza preparedness plan: the role of WHO and recommendations for national measures before and during pandemics. Annex 1. 2005 [cited 2005 Apr]. Available from http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/influenza/WHO_CDS_CSR_GIP_2005_5/en

5. Pandemic Influenza, what it is and what you can do.http://home.san.rr.com/earlybird/BF_PSA.pdf

6. World Health Organization. Non-pharmaceutical interventions: their role in reducing transmission and spread. 2005 [cited 2005 Nov]. Available from http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/pharmaintervention2005_11_3/en/index.html

7. World Health Organization Writing Group. Nonpharmaceutical public health interventions for pandemic influenza, national and community measures. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006;12:88 “94.”

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19. Neuzil KM, Hohlbein C, Zhu Y. Illness among schoolchildren during influenza season: effect on school absenteeism, parental absenteeism from work, and secondary illness in families. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 2002;156:986 “91.

20. Cumpston JHL. Influenza and maritime quarantine in Australia. Report no. 18. Melbourne: Commonwealth of Australia, Quarantine Service; 1919.

21. McQueen H. “Spanish ‘flu” 1919: political, medical and social aspects. Med J Aust. 1975;1:565 “70.

22. New South Wales Department of Public Health. Report on the influenza epidemic in New South Wales in 1919. Section V. Sydney: William Applegate Gullick; 1920. p 139 “272.”

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24.  Patterson KD, Pyle GF. The diffusion of influenza in sub-Saharan Africa during the 1918 “1919 pandemic. Soc Sci Med. 1983;17:1299 “307.

25.  Barry JM. The great epidemic: the epic story of the deadliest plague in history. New York: Viking Penguin; 2004.

26.  Peltier. L’ÃpidÃmie d’influenza qui a sÃvi en Nouvelle CalÃdonie en 1921. Bulletin de l’Office International d’Hygiène Publique. 1922;14:676“85.

27. Patterson KD. The influenza epidemic of 1918“1919 in the Gold Coast. J Afr Hist. 1983;24:485 “502.

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31. Pitman RJ, Cooper BS, Trotter CL, Gay NJ, Edmunds WJ. Entry screening for SARS or influenza, policy evaluation. BMJ. 2005;331:1242“3.

32. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Use of quarantine to prevent transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome ”Taiwan, 2003. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2003;52:680“3.

33. Mangili A, Gendreau MA. Transmission of infectious diseases during commercial air travel. Lancet. 2005;365:989“96.

34. Miller JM, Tam TW, Maloney S, Fukuda K, Cox N, Hockin J, et al. Cruise ships: high-risk passengers and the global spread of new influenza viruses. Clin Infect Dis. 2000;31:433 “8.”

35. Marsden AG. Influenza outbreak related to air travel. Med J Aust. 2003;179:172“3.

36. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Preliminary guidelines for the prevention and control of influenza-like illness among passengers and crew members on cruise ships. 1999 [cited 2005 Sep]. Available fromhttp://www.cdc.gov/travel/CDCguideflufnl.pdf

37. Olsen SJ, Chang HL, Cheung TY, Tang AF, Fisk TL, Ooi SP, et al. Transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome on aircraft. N Engl J Med. 2003;349:2416 “22.”

Ready-UP! America

The Ready-UP! program was created by self-reliance/preparedness/sustainable living expert Aton Edwards in Spring 2011 to function as a mechanism that trains the general public in the aforementioned disciplines.  Edwards believed that the government created preparedness programs was not connecting with the public and that something more dynamic was needed to spark interest.

Drawing from his extensive experience in teaching preparedness to large audiences, he designed a program that he knew the public would enjoy.   He then enlisted the aid of several of his colleagues who worked in the same field to join him; including his friends and radio partners on the KISS-FM (now WBLS-FM) popular radio program Open Line.

The creator of the Open Line, Peabody Award winning radio personality Bob Slade, convinced his management to sponsor the event.  His partners two-time Grammy Award winning composer/musician and activist James M’tume, former Federal Judge and Garden State Association of Black Journalists award winner Bob Pickett also believed in the idea and, the first presentation was at St. Francis College on July 8^th 2011.

It featured the program hosts, along with the participants:  Bedford Stuyvesant Volunteer Ambulance Corp director Rocky Robinson and members of his organization.  Representatives of the Red Cross, Salvation Army, Riverkeeper, and several other similar groups and organizations were also in attendance.

The event was a smash success.  It was due to   Sadly on August 13^th 2011, Edwards mother, Doris succumbed to a stroke.

Doris Edwards & Son

His mothers death combined with other family responsibilities forced Edwards to discontinue activities with the Ready-UP! program for several months.

He along with his friends and colleagues began to reactivate the program in late 2012, holding Ready-UP! workshops called “Escape From The Grid.”   As they gained popularity, his group began to plan their next large forum corresponding television program and fundraiser, all slated to begin in the summer of 2013.

The upcoming main event is titled  “Ready-UP! America”  It will be held at a large capacity New York area venue. For the main live presentation, The Open Line radio show team will return along with most of the original participants & organizations.  The target date for the kickoff program will be Saturday, June 1st – the beginning of Hurricane season.

Ready-UP! Events will continue through the summer and ending with a gala event in September, 2013.

EMERGENCY TRANSPORTATION

When the going gets really tough, you may need emergency transportation.

If you ever find yourself in a situation where you are forced to evacuate your home, workplace or wherever you may find yourself because of a disaster or emergency; you may not be able to use your automobile.  Disasters and other emergencies often produce severe damage to buildings, bridges and roads that can make travel difficult and in many cases impossible.

Emergency evacuations clog traffic.

It may sometimes be necessary to utilize other forms of transportation to move safely and swiftly to safe areas.   If you have a short distance to cover to move to a safe area, walking is probably your best and most effective option.  

Walking to escape disaster

However, if you need to travel longer distances, you will need a safe, tested and reliable form of transportation that you can use to move out of harm’s way quickly.   On land, there is nothing more effective than the bicycle.

Montague Paratrooper Bike

The bicycle pictured above is called the Montague Paratrooper. 

This bike was originally developed for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) for a light human powered infantry vehicle. The Montague bike is currently in use by the US Marines, Army and police departments across the United States. It is a full-size and folds. It can be easily packed inside of an automobile trunk, or slung over your shoulder and carried in its own bag!

(see video below)

A durable folding bike like the Montague Paratrooper is better than a fixed frame due to its light weight & portability.   Smaller folders are great also but cannot handle the heavy loads that a full-size model can.

To make your emergency bicycle even more reliable, purchase “run flat” or “puncture-proof” tires.Britek Tires of Colorado will be marketing a new puncture proof tire soon.

There are many companies that make puncture resistant tires that you can look up on the internet.

Outside of bicycles, the only other reliable form of human transportation for land is something that can only be used by highly skilled and fit individuals.  It is called an “all terrain roller skate.”

If you are an experienced roller skater and are physically fit enough to use them, this is another great option for emergency travel.  Outside of a muddy road and sand, these skates can move across most surfaces.

Water Transportation Systems

In some cases, you may need to cross or travel on a body of water such as a lake or river.   When you do, you’ll need a boat.   For emergency transportation, inflatable boats are your best option. They are easy to use, set up, store away and are relatively inexpensive. Before purchasing an inflatable boat, you must know what types are best suited for emergency use.

To begin, there are four distinct types.

1. Yacht Tenders.

2. V-Hull.

3. High performance hulls.

4. Rigid hull or RHIB (rigid hull inflatable boats)

1. Yacht tenders are best for civilians that would like to own a small safe (6-20 foot long) inflatable boat that can be used for either emergency or recreational purposes.  Currently yacht tenders have four types with different hull (floor) configurations. Most have floors with four inch wide fabric and wood or plastic inflatable slats that run across the beam.

This type of slatted floor is generally found in inflatables from about 6 to 8 feet in length only, because of this very light structure yacht tenders are not as strong as others with v-hulls or inflatable keels so they don’t work as well with motors or rowing.

Sea Eagle Yacht Tender

2. V-hull (wood or inflatable keel)  These are built with a longitudinal (across the length of the boat) inflation tube or wood keel placed directly underneath the floorboards. When it is blown up, it produces a stable V-shaped keel in the front (bow) of the boat this makes the vessel more stable and buoyant as it moves through the water.

V-Hull Yacht Tender

3. High-performance hulls  are inflatables that are specially designed for high speed use. Only experienced users should opt for this type of inflatable craft.

High Performance Hull

4. Rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RIB’s) These have a solid fiberglass hull joined to an inflatable collar giving it the benefits of an inflatable and rigid craft. They can also hold more weight.

Rigid Hull Inflatable Boat

Inflatable boats are especially useful in flood prone low-lying areas. Even urban residents who live near rivers may consider owning a small model (8-12)  for use during emergency evacuations. In large cities, traffic may prevent rapid movement. An inflatable boat equipped with a small outboard motor could easily move a family of four up to 20 to 30 miles away from a disaster area in less than four hours. In NYC, it could be used to move up or down the Harlem, East or Hudson river to a safe area.

During a flood, it could be used by a family to move quickly out of the submerged zone.

Flood Escape By Inflatable Boat

Users of inflatable boats must always remember to carefully tuck away all sharp objects so that they do not puncture the skin.  This could cause it to rapidly deflate and sink. Overloading is also a safety issue. Be sure to pay close attention to the manufacturers-weight ratings. If moving through flood waters, make certain to look out for dangerous sharp debris. Use your oars to move it out of your path if possible. If not, be very careful as you move around it.

There are small gas and electric outboard motors especially designed for inflatable boats. The motor that you choose should never be over or under powered; or, over the manufacturers performance rating.

Small Outboard Motor

Make sure that you match the performance of the motor with the tasks it will perform. If this is an emergency escape craft, you must purchase a boat large enough to haul all of your passengers & emergency gear. Always check the length of the motor shaft (short long or extra long) each inflatable is designed to work with one or the other — never both. If you use a motor, you must purchase an inflatable that can accommodate one.

Like all inflatable objects, there will be small punctures, tears and leaks. Each boat comes with a repair kit that will allow you to easily make repairs in the field if you need to. Large tears require a bit more expertise to repair, but, they can also be done effectively if you take the time necessary to do it properly. Always be mindful to use glue that is rated for use with the material your boat is manufactured from and make sure to keep your repair kit fully stocked and handy in a floating container.

Emergency Air Transportation

Disasters and emergencies can sometimes make certain areas inaccessible to any type of land or water vehicle. This is when only some form of air transportation system will do. Regular fixed wing aircraft may not have the space to land due to debris. In most cases Helicopters and “ultralight” STOL (short take off & landing) aircraft are the best forms of emergency air transportation.

There are several personal helicopters & other similar concept vehicles being developed for civilian use.  The video below is a great example of what may be available in the near future.

There are many new forms of emergency transportation that are currently being developed.  Be sure to check back in this section for new additions & updates!

RFA

New I.P.N. Logo

By Aton Edwards, Executive Director I.P.N.

Happy belated new year to all of our members, friends and associates!  I haven’t posted a information update in quite sometime so, I’ve decided to put together a short video that will not only fill you in on all the details regarding our upcoming activities in 2013, it will also allow me to avoid typing – a task that I dread…

Click here to view the embedded video.

In summary, this video will describe:

Member Identification And Assembly.  We’ll be rounding up all of our members here in the USA and abroad. This will include individuals, groups, businesses, etc.  who have registered on our website, taken our classes, or formally joined us to become members.    All will be contacted online via the  ipngroups@readyforanything.org email.

New Member Training Dates.  I’ll discuss my new plans on teaching the next round of classes.

The next Ready-UP! presentation.  For all who aren’t aware, Ready-UP! was a program presented in NYC July 8 2011.  In Spring 2013, we will present a new and much more comprehensive production that will be televised.

KISS-FM Ready-UP! 2011

I’ll be posting new updates weekly so stay tuned!

By Aton Edwards, Executive Director I.P.N.

As my hometown struggles to recover from the devastating effects of Hurricane Sandy, I along with my friends, colleagues and associates have decided to stage several self-reliance and preparedness workshops across the New York City and tri-state area.  This will provide the people who were hit by the storm with critical information about resources that they may need to recover, and others with details about how to prepare for disasters and, remain self-reliant after they occur.

We will post all info about all of our upcoming event here on the website.   Please check it periodically for new postings about upcoming events.

The first workshop will be staged Monday, November 12th 2012 at my old building The Promenade, located at 225th Street,  Terrace View Avenue. (1 train to 225th street & Broadway, Metro North to Marble Hill, #9 bus to 225th & Broadway)

If you would like to attend, please RSVP @ readyupevents@readyforanything.org

This will be part of the I.P.N’s Ready-UP! “Safe Building Program” initiative, a special self-reliance and preparedness program created especially for high-rise apartment buildings.

If you wish to stage a workshop at your high-rise please contact: safebuildings@readyforanything.org

If you need info about assistance, please scan through the list posted below.

FEDERAL DISASTER RECOVERY PROGRAM LISTING

]]> http://readyforanything.org/?feed=rss2&p=465 1 http://readyforanything.org/?p=458 http://readyforanything.org/?p=458#comments Sun, 28 Oct 2012 14:22:54 +0000 admin http://readyforanything.org/?p=458

By Aton Edwards, IPN Executive Director

Hurricane Sandy is rapidly approaching!

Here are a few tips you can use to prepare.  READY-UP!

 ”Superstorm” Preparedness Plan.

Make sure to have an emergency food & water supply on hand…

Stock up on non-perishable food items as the storm may produce power outages (blackouts). In some areas, power may not be restored for 72 hours or more due to fallen power lines. Look for the food that does not require heating to eat it.   If you have medicine  that requires refrigeration and you have a cooler, purchase some ice. Place it in your freezer. If power goes down, keep the freezer closed and it will keep it cold until the ice melts, e Or place the ice in a cooler and keep the medicine inside.

Zombie Apocalypse Training Day!

By Aton Edwards, I.P.N. Executive Director, Zombie Slayer

I find all this “Zombie Apocalypse” talk quite fascinating. I thought it was quite clever when the CDC decided to utilize this tongue-in-cheek approach to help motivate people into preparing for disasters and emergencies.  Ever since Max Brooks released his “Zombie Survival Guide” several years ago, people can’t seem to get enough of the undead.  Movies like Shaun Of The Dead & Zombieland have been packing in the crowds and the upcoming World War Z will probably be a blockbuster despite some recent rumors concerning the direction and script…

World War Z set picture

Even law enforcement and the military are getting into the act. About a week ago I read a story in the Huffington Post about how they were conducting “Zombie Apocalypse” training in preparation for a virus outbreak.   I also know that a Zombie Apocalypse industry has seemingly grown out of nowhere to satisfy the public thirst for all-things-undead.  Zombie slaying items such as combat knives, guns, and ammo have been flying off the shelves.  People are even investing in Zombie Proof homes!

The reality behind it all is a bit more sobering.  Truth is, the Zombie Apocalypse movement is just a metaphor to mask the ugly reality of what would really happen and how we’ll behave  when, (not if ) we confront a major world-changing catastrophe.   Zombies are bad, but hey — they’re the mindless undead!  We however are quite alive and, I might add even in the best of times  we routinely do things that would make even a zombie wince.

Don’t try and deny it.  Be honest.  Humans make Zombies, Dracula, Frankenstein the Wolfman & even Dick Cheney look tame in comparison.  Think I’m being a bit too extreme?  Ok, how about this …  let’s compare.  Zombies eat people right?  Well — people eat people too.  Lots more then you may think.  Remember the recent story about Rudy Eugene, a seemingly normal guy, who attempted to eat the face off of Ronald Poppo, a homeless man.  Poppo survived, but Rudy Eugene didn’t.  He was shot multiple times by a police officer while growling and chewing on Poppo’s face.

Manwich.

They said he was high on a drug called “Bath Salts” when he did it. Turns out it was plain old pot — a substance that mostly mellows people out and gives them the munchies.  Most of the time, people reach for potato chips, peanuts, the usual snacks.  Eating the faces of of homeless men isn’t something that often happens when some one is high on pot.

To make matters worse, Eugene was followed by several more people across the nation and around the world who decided that they’d like to have a “Manwich” too.   It’s the new rage.  Or the old one — especially if you know history ’cause the fact is,  we’ve been eating each other since we rolled out of Lake Turkana in Africa 100,000 years ago.

It’s just something we do.

For example, most of us are too young to remember  the Russian famine of 1921 or, the 872 day-long siege of Leningrad during WWII.

During the famine of 1921, many parents ate their own dead children to stay alive.   In Leningrad, once the food delivery & distribution lines got cut off, people resorted to eating the flesh of the dead.  Every cat, dog, rat, squirrel, and bird also wound up on the starving residents dinner plates.  New Guinea tribesmen ate the hearts and brains of their opponents to gain strength.  They usually got something else, a disease called Kuru, the human version of mad cow disease that makes the brain into something that resembles swiss cheese.   Oh yeah, did I forget to mention Jeffrey Dahmer? 

I rest my case.

Oh yeah - here’s another reason why we (people) are even worse than Zombies.  It’s quite simple.  Humans have an insatiable appetite for destruction that zombies just don’t.

Sure, they’ll wreck your house while they are chasing you, but that’s only because they are hungry and mindless.  We on the other hand are completely conscious of what we do.  Starting wars for no particular reason, raping & molesting children, torturing & murdering innocent people, it’s in our DNA.

We’re God’s twisted children on a rampage … wrecking nearly everything we see and touch.  Even the planet we live on.  Just look at the way we behave in relatively good times.  

How do you think we’ll act when things go bad?

So –  do you see why we need Zombie Apocalypse training?

Hell … we need HUMAN apocalypse training!

Whatever you want to call it, It is definitely something we all should have and it’s time that I shared some of my “zombie” killing, offensive/defensive skills with all who wish to avoid what will occur when the proverbial “s**t hits the fan.”

Oh, I forgot to mention one last thing … are you aware that there is a large group of people in the US who are stockpiling ammo, weapons  and preparing for a new Civil War if President Obama is re-elected?   Don’t be foolish and dismiss them as “crazies,” crackpots or right-wingnuts either.  There are far too many of them and they mean business.  They are also armed to the teeth, ready to roll and waiting for the right time and incident that will light their fuse and set them off.

The re-election of President Barack Obama or as they call him “Barry Soetoro.” could set them off or, it could be something else.  Whatever it is, the threat is real.

Make no mistake about this.  The government knows what is on the horizon and is taking measures to prepare for it.  So should you.  

Beginning on the 29^th of September, I will be staging a Zombie Apocalypse training class every two weeks as part of our Escape From The Grid self-reliance/preparedness/sustainable living program.

Our first class will be in New York City, at Van Cortlandt Park, 242^nd Street & Broadway.  It’s a great place to stage a full-on urban survival, zombie-fighting disaster preparedness & response romp.   The class begins at 9 AM and ends at Sunset or 7 PM.  It will cover a focused group of critical preparedness & survival skills including, cold weather outdoor survival skills, rappelling, firestarting, and numerous other self-reliance/defense/preparedness related survival protocols.

Tickets/reservations for the event are $50 for adults, $75 for couples, $30 for students, $20 for children (must be 14 & up)

You can reserve your place by emailing escapefromthegrid@readyforanything.org, or call (212) 726-2483.  

If you’d like to set up a course in your town or city, contact me directly at: bsirius@readyforanything.org.

All who attend are strongly advised to wear work or durable clothes that you don’t mind getting dirty and, to bring a cap, scarf or anything that you use to cover your hair, to protect yourself from insects (ticks).

It’d be great to bring insect repellant too.

I.P.N. Instructors  El Tawfiyq Aziz (Dr. Shaka Zulu) and, Margaret Ling will be on hand with LifeStraw water filtersand other critical survival equipment for sale.

Margaret Ling, I.P.N. Instructor

Dr.Shaka Zulu, Security Chief Universal Zulu Nation

I’ll be including the Zombie Apocalypse training in our Ready-UP! America program too.  From the looks of things around our nation and world today, it looks like we’re going to need it.  I hope never, but as ‘ol Ben Frankiln used to say … “he who dines upon hope will die fasting.”

I don’t plan going out that way. So –

Get ready America -

It’s Zombie Apocalypse time!

By Aton Edwards, I.P.N. Executive Director

I’m going to begin this piece by thanking all of our supporters/members for bearing with us while we re-configured our website and several other related technical and management issues.

Now that we’ve got them all solved, we’re good to go!  

Quite a bit has been changed.  I will reveal all of the details here at the end of the week.  It’s quite exciting…  I’m looking forward to the launch of several fantastic programs and projects that I know you will all appreciate.  To begin, I’m especially excited about unveiling our “ia,” science of human survival for the next century program.

Our mission has also expanded.  When we began back in 1989, our focus was on community disaster preparedness, response- recovery training and education.   For the most part, we’ve maintained this status for the past 21 years.   The time has come to formally include several other extremely important categories that are overlooked by the US and many other governments around the world.  Declaring them as disasters helps to mobilize aid and develop practical and innovative solutions to prevent them from occurring or, to manage them when they arise.

This will be the newest and largest new I.P.N. directive. To develop technology & tools that will aid in the mitigation, response and recovery from the full range of natural, technological, environmental, civil, cyber and including social disasters such as homelessness, hunger, poverty etc.  A great example of  this principal is the Bill & Melinda Gates foundation’s “Reinvent The Toilet” program.   The foundation has created a competition for scientists & inventors around the world to compete for grants to assist them in developing toilets for the over  2.5 billion people around the world who don’t have proper sanitation facilities.   Nearly 2 million people per year die of waterborne illnesses, often produced by human waste polluting their drinking water.

We’ll also be working hard to prepare America’s inner-cities, rural and impoverished areas along with assisting great organizations such as the Bedford Stuyvesant Volunteer Ambulance Corp. and the Universal Zulu Nation to build high tech community Incident Command Centers that can provide critical support for communities after disasters and other emergencies strike.

I.P.N. will offer our own programs based on the universal human needs of shelter, water and food.

We will continue teaching disaster preparedness with a new twist.  The training will be a comprehensive program called “Escape From The Grid”

Escape From The Grid training not only prepares you for disasters, but also if you commit to the entire program it also readies you to develop your own “off-grid” urban or rural homestead.   We’ll also be going full gear with our ia-science of human survival training.  Needless to say, this will be an exciting month

Let’s make this upcoming National Disaster Preparedness Month great.  I’ll be back Monday with more info!  Lots more uploading to do!

RFA!

Aton Edwards

By Aton Edwards

As we move into the beginning of another year, we can look back on all of the challenges we’ve faced in 2008 and take comfort in the fact that by and large …

WE ARE STILL HERE!

Despite the massive floods in the U.S. across the Southern Midwest and Plains, Southern China, Vietnam, Yemen, India and Ireland or, the large Canadian gas explosions that rocked Toronto, violent Tornadoes that ripped across Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, and even the CNN news center in Atlanta, Georgia.

We also survived …

A dengue fever outbreak in Brazil, Hurricane Gustav & Tropical Storm Hanna that devastated Haiti, Hurricane Ike,  a 6.4 earthquake in Pakistan, Russian nuclear sub accident, California fires, a recent ice storm, percolating conflict between Pakistan and India, and, a number of other tragedies that are too numerous to list here.

Now that you are recovering from your new years celebrations, I certainly hope you enjoyed them, and, took plenty of pictures to remember the evening; because you are about to enter face-first into a blast-furnace of a year that will make you wish for the relative “happy days” of 2008 – or, even September 11th 2001.   

BELIEVE IT.

“Submitted for your approval … a series of crises on a small planet manifest a confluence of events that threaten to rip the fabric of society to shreds.  The remedies to the problems lie in the hands of the masses, but they are either unaware or indifferent to the fact that they ultimately hold the keys to their own survival. They are now about to find out as they enter … The ”Misery Zone.”  

Beginning with,

#1 OUR FAILING ECONOMY – THE DOW DROPPED LIKE IT’S HOT!

You already know we’re in the midst of a global economic meltdown.

What you may not know is just how severe and wide-ranging the effects will be.   Most of our top economic experts are already stating that last year’s holiday shopping season was a huge bust. Retailers were dependent on the holiday cash infusions to keep them afloat, and the anemic sales totals will force them to downsize, or for many, file for bankruptcy and shutdown completely.

Unemployment will increase dramatically across all lines as we rapidly move toward a global depression.” as the IMF’s (International Monetary Fund) top economist, Olivier Blanchard recently told the French newspaper Le Monde.“  He also said,  ”The coming months will be very bad,”

As the infamous “Stewie” character would say … yes yes  … very bad indeed.  

So, it’s safe to say that we should expect more foreclosures, unemployment, and, the inevitable side-effects of our rapidly spreading “Misery Zone” matrix, rising crime rates, homelessness, hunger, illness  (physical and mental) as the ever growing list of global economic refugees begin to break down from the strain of their losses.

Heart attacks, strokes, cancer and all stress related illnesses will rise … probably in direct proportion to our economic woes. This will wreak havoc with our failing health care system and, most importantly, with the individuals and families that must struggle to cope with their respective tragic situations.

In some countries, the global economic depression will provoke chaos and serious conflicts. Diseases will spread as their ability to control them is limited by their diminishing financial resources.

Charities such as CARE, UNICEF, Doctors Without Borders The United Way and many others will be forced to scale back their activities and, as it is in most cases of economic instability, children, women, the sick and elderly will suffer the most.  

I believe that we’ve moved far past the “tipping point” of staving off this global economic depression and, must begin to develop and deploy solid plans of action to deal with it, or …

It will deal with us.  

We certainly can’t afford to wait on Washington DC to provide us with answers.  They’re directly responsible for a great deal of the economic troubles that we are suffering from now. Expecting to find practical solutions from a dysfunctional body of politicians reminds me of what Benjamin Franklin and Einstein used to say about the definition of insanity …

“Doing the same thing over again and expecting different results.”  

Clearly, if we are going to survive this economic crisis, we are going to need another game plan.  Keep in mind, these numbskulls just handed $700 billion dollars to banks!  This is akin to giving Amy Winehouse a lifetime supply of Stolichnaya.   Sure it’s possible that she won’t abuse it …

But, damn, it’s Amy Winehouse!

You feel me?

I’m sure that our new President will try his best to assuage the situation, but his name is Barack Obama, not Merlin and it would take some awfully powerful magic to fix this broken “back-asswards” system.  Sadly, I don’t believe his “ol black magic is going to be enough.

I kind of see him as a captain of a sinking ship …  

It kind of reminds me of … of,  Well, you know.

If signs are an omen, things are already looking bad as our future President and his “highly professional” team of protectors had to scramble to find generators to provide power after a blackout. Even a next door neighbor was more prepared than they were, and offered to lend the President Elect his generator. President Elect Obama politely declined his offer and returned to the darkness, hoping that his team could restore the power.

My question is, if they were unprepared for a minor contingency like that, do you really believe that they are ready to … “restore the power?  

I think not.

This entire planet has been “Bushwhacked and Cheneyed” something awful over the past eight years, and unless Barack adds the Justice League of America to his team … we’re in for some serious pain.

Of course, it would be possible IF the American people committed themselves to HELP President Obama by behaving more responsibly and, making the personal sacrifices that could help us pull things back together again.

Our nation wouldn’t be perfect of course, but, at the very least, we could restore some stability and repair a great deal of the damage the “Bushites” and his stygian “nihil”-o-con’s left us with.

Let’s be honest.  What’s the chance of this happening?  Americans making personal sacrifices? Nada, zip …  zero. Outside of hard-core political and social activists, firefighters and the military, who’s gonna do that? The fact is, most of the people in this country consider a disruption of their cable TV service  and late delivery of their Domino’s pizza as a major inconvenience. They aren’t ready to be “born again hard” and get down to business! Barring some sort of miraculous transformation, this won’t be happening anytime soon. 

This is precisely why the popular Russian academic and former KGB analyst Igor Panarin, has recently predicted that the current economic crisis will literally break apart the US by 2010.  

“There’s a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur,” he says.  

As things stand today, he might not be too far from the truth.

This is why you need to realize that the time has arrived where you MUST start seriously thinking about getting ready for the inevitable. You can begin by adopting what I call the COYA (COver Your Ass) directive and learn what you need to “do for self” quick, or, be prepared to suffer the consequences!

Moving on to my next prediction …

There’s something else we need to be very concerned with besides the economy … something far more dangerous and potentially destructive.

In fact, it is so serious that even ol’ Doc is worried.  Not for me, of course, but for my 10 year old beloved boy Amen.

I’m not talking about the usual mix of natural disasters either.

Those will come, as they always have and always will.  I expect we’ll see quite a few in 2009.

I’m talking about …

#2 THE UNEXPECTED “BLACK SWAN”  EVENT.

My favorite quote comes to mind when I think about this topic.

“Down here, we don’t deal the deck, we just play the percentages”  Jack Nicholson as Lucifer in the film adaptation of the John Updike novel “Witches Of Eastwick”

Simply stated, a Black Swan event is, as explained by the Scholar Nassim Nicholas Taleb  “a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations.”  Black Swan events have always occurred throughout history and, have had profound effects on all aspects of our society.

Think of the 2001 911 tragedy or Indonesian Tsunami. Many people knew (including myself) that in theory these things could happen … but, think of how stunned some people were when they actually did!  In the end, our entire society was changed permanently by the attacks, and, we’re all still suffering from their impact many years later.

What I fear is that our current volatile global state of social affairs, major environmental, and ecological emergencies, combined with the threats posed by weapons of mass destruction proliferation, emerging diseases, conflict and; a large number of other major concerns, are the “perfect storm” of conditions that will give rise to several large scale Black Swan events. I’m particularly concerned about the following:

IN THE U.S.A.

Global geophysical events (“GGe”) This is a catastrophe of natural origin that has the potential to produce severe damage to society, the world’s environment, and economy.

They can be classified as a volcanic “super-volcano” eruption such as the one in Yellowstone Park that has recently suffered from an unusual spat of small earthquakes.  It can also be a mega-tsunami, (much larger than the recent Indonesian Tsunami) an enormous earthquake, or, an asteroid/comet impact.  

I believe that it’s well within the realm of possibility that we may experience a GGe this year.  Volcanic & seismic activity tends to come in cycles and from the looks of a great deal of new data, we just may be at the beginning of a highly active period.  Of particular concern is the New Madrid fault system that extends 120 miles southward from Charleston, Missouri, and Cairo, Illinois. It crosses through five state lines, cuts across the Ohio river in two spots and, the Mississippi River in three.

In November 2008, a series of small earthquakes rocked central Arkansas and seismologists across the nation. Haydar Al-Shukri, director of the Arkansas Earthquake Center at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock stated to the press that “It is abnormal. It is significant”  Along with,“the potential for generating a high-magnitude earthquake is real”  Hopefully, we won’t see another event like the one on December 16, 1811 when the New Madrid fault exploded and produced three 8.0+ quite possibly 9.0 earthquakes.  If this occurred today, it would produce nearly a trillion dollars (perhaps more) in property damage, hundreds of thousands of fatalities, along with millions of injured and homeless.  

I’m also very worried about Los Angeles, San Francisco and my hometown… New York City.  All are due for another large quake and very soon. 2009 could also be the year when the volcano on the Canary island of La Palma erupts.  If it does, the western flank of the island will drop into the sea and generate a “mega-tsunami.”  In the immediate area of the collapse, the wave would be nearly one mile high, dissipating as it travels across the ocean at over 600 miles per hour into a smaller 197 foot wave that would smash into the U.S. East Coast and travel nearly 25 miles inland in some areas.

The cataclysmic damage would take a century to repair and, trillions of dollars.  It is doubtful that the nation that emerges after the recovery would resemble anything we know today.

A weapon of mass destruction terrorist attack, or limited nuclear exchange.  

I believe within the next 4 years (perhaps sooner) we’ll see a nuclear or biological weapon used against civilian targets; and, so does a commission created by Congress in a recent report titled “World At Risk.”   A nuclear attack would probably involve more than one target, quite possibly three.    

Nuclear weapon attacks are possible but bioweapons such as anthrax are more probable. 

I believe another strike with a bio-weapon is coming much sooner, perhaps this year.  Again, anthrax will most likely be the weapon of choice, although it could be something else, or a combination of lethal and incapacitating agents. Highly contagious diseases could also be used such as engineered strains of the avian flu or even smallpox.    I also believe that the source of these attacks may not come from as the government believes, Middle Eastern terrorist groups but from domestic organizations, (white supremacists) cults or, even highly skilled individuals with access to the resources needed to construct and deploy these types of weapons.

I call this the “12th Monkey Syndrome” drawn from the 1995 Terry Gilliam movie where a mad scientist creates & deliberately releases a virus that kills nearly everyone on Earth.  It would be wise not to dismiss this possibility.

There are the Ted Kaczynski’s (the “unabomber”), Jim Joneses and, Shoko Asahara’s (Aum Shinrikyo cult leader) we know, and a thousand others we don’t.  Some have advanced degrees in biology, physics, chemistry or, just the plain know-how to get it done.   I believe it’s only a matter of time before someone will. 

A pandemic.

You can countdown the months before we are hit with another pandemic similar to the Spanish Flu incident that killed 675,000 Americans and over 100 million worldwide. 2009 could be the year when one begins.

Civil unrest.  

As factories and businesses shut down, the ranks of the unemployed will dramatically increase.  People will become desperate as they struggle to survive.  The end result will be higher crime levels, a huge amount of bank robberies and in many cities, low scale class warfare as Americans compete with undocumented laborers for jobs.  Expect a dramatic increase in hate crimes, most directed towards immigrants from Latin America.

There is also the possibility of a major eruption of civil unrest related to the election of President Barack Obama.

Make no mistake, there are a large number of individuals and groups that are quite unhappy with his election and mean to do him serious harm.  If an assassination attempt is made against our President and, it succeeds, it would almost certainly provoke violent and protracted civil unrest and intense racial conflicts in many urban areas across the nation that eventually would require military intervention.   In addition, enemies of the state would take advantage of the chaos to create even more damage.

Extreme Weather Events.

Global warming will combine with natural Earth cycles and give us another year of extreme weather anomalies.  Expect more flooding, highly destructive tornadoes and hurricanes, temperature extremes, and, more drought in the Southwest.  The fire seasons in California and Florida will be exceptionally intense, with the destruction in some areas exacerbated by arsonists.

Suicide terrorist attacks.  

I’m sorry to say that 2009 may be the year when suicide bombers begin to attack American cities. Subways, sporting events or, any area where large amounts of people gather and the carnage can be maximized will be targeted.  Fuel trucks, propane canisters, suicide vests rigged with explosives could be used, or, even a Mumbai, India style terrorist attack in a busy area of a city could occur.  With each day that passes the risk becomes greater.

There is ONE that is also quite possible that could change the entire planet … something quite amazing that will be the most dramatic change in the history of humanity …

The scientific verification of extra-terrestrial life -

There have been a number of very encouraging signs over the past few years regarding this development. Recently, several research teams have reported that methane gas has been detected in the Martian atmosphere in low concentrations (about 10 parts per billion). Most methane on our planet is produced by biological activity, and microbial life. The presence of methane gas is considered by Astro-biologists as a “bio-marker” There are also many other Intriguing discoveries involving the discovery of unusual microbes in Earth’s upper atmosphere  that could have an extra-terrestrial origin. When this revelation is verified, it will have many benefits and also many consequences.  Especially from fundamentalist religious types.

These are only a few examples of what could be high-impact paradigm shifting “Black Swan” events.  There are many more possibilities only limited by your imagination.

My gut tells me that we are in for something big and nasty and we need to be ready for it.

To top off that piece of happy news, we can also expect that a large number of major crises around the world will continue to dramatically worsen.  

For example, the Zimbabwean humanitarian crisis will continue to deteriorate unless President Mugabe is either deposed or dies.  As conditions intensify, diseases such as, Cholera, and even the highly virulent Ebola will spread and produce outbreaks.  Two Zimbabwean solders recently died from Ebola and 35 more are currently infected.

• Pakistan and India will remain on edge long after the Mumbai tragedy.  Disputes over the Kashmir territory will flare up again and terrorism in both nations will rise sharply. 

• The Taliban will seize control of many more areas in Afghanistan and increase attacks against American troops.

• The Gaza situation will motivate many sympathetic factions in the Middle East to stage attacks against American, British, French and other high value western targets in Europe and around the world.

• Famine will worsen in the Congo.

• Lawlessness will continue to spread across Somalia.

• The global water and food crisis will exponentially increase leaving tens of millions more without the ability to irrigate their crops.  This will lead toward famine, suffering, disease and ultimately more conflict and death.

And the beat goes on …

The great thing here is, this year, you’ll never have to waste your money at a horror or disaster movie again!

So many people around the world will be living in one that it just won’t be necessary!

Bad thing is … it might be YOU!

And that’s why I’m advising all my clients to invest in canned goods and shotguns!

Good luck.  You’ll need it.

Tha that’s-tha that’s- tha that’s – all folks.

RFA!